Blu-ray won, but will it matter?
Some time ago I commented on soon-to-be relased new video disc formats. Since then, in less than two years, the war was won. Some expected a long, protracted war between the formats. But when Warner Bros. announced early last year that they would be switching to Blu-ray exclusively, a cascading wave of defection rolled through the industry quickly ending any hopes for HD DVD. That all, of course, is old news by now.
I was surprised at how quickly this occured, and I'll admit that I had expected HD DVD to win the format war. This was for a few reasons, one of which is that Microsoft backed HD DVD. Well, I guess Microsoft isn't the all-powerful monopoly some accuse it of being.
Sony, however, was very affective in this fight. Some time ago, I watched an interview of Sony CEO, Howard Stringer, by Charlie Rose. Howard discussed how there was a concerted effort to prevent a repeat of what happened in the video tape format war -- a war Sony lost. It helped that, this time around, Sony owned a movie studio. But getting the various divisions of Sony to cooperate in a matter like this was a challenge even for the CEO of the company. They pulled it off.
I'm not so sure, however, that winning this war is as significant as it seems. Digital downloads of movies is really the next significant thing in video. I love that I can buy or rent movies that download striaght to my TiVo. I'm not sure how much disc renting and buying I'll actually do in the future. I'm sure I'm not alone in this.
Blu-ray is a great technology that may be just a bit late to the game.
(BE175)
Comments:
More as a premium solution for those with higher end setups.
I prefer to think of it as the Video equivilant to Audiophiles "special" cables.
I do think as they mature more they will become more useful.
I saw somewhere on the net that (Sony?) had made a Dual format disc, DVD and Blue-ray on the same side.
They can do this because of the different light densities and lengths.
Time will tell...
And video downloads are becoming more available.
I also wonder if folks are figuring out that buying movies generally isn't worth it. Sure the Dark Knight was a great film, but how many times are you going to actually sit down and watch it? We are finally getting around to watching through the LOTR trilogy extended edition that we just HAD to HAVE! But who has 12 hour in a row to devote to something like that? We're actually watching in in parts over 6 nights. And this vacation time is one of the few times we have 6 nights in a row to do something like that.
So, yes Blu-Ray won, but are they the buggy whips in a horseless carriage world?
The beginnings of true on demand video are here but will take time to be available to the masses. High speed connections needed for this are not available to everyone yet but when it is (and relatively inexpensive) most physical media may become obsolete, although there will always be the fans and collectors ( I know people that still use LPs - not that there is anything wrong with that...) who will keep the specialty markets alive.
In the short term it has at least solidified a physical medium for delivery of HD content. Early adopters made their decision long ago - some were winners, others not so much...
Now those that were on the fence may begin making those purchases, perhaps waiting for cost reductions to or near parity with current up-converting DVD players. Most Blu-Ray players are compatible with regular DVDs and will also up-convert them so users don't lose anything and can play both making it a flexible solution. The BD discs are coming down in price pretty quick which will also be a factor.
Personally, I read a lot about tech to stay informed, but usually I am in the late adopter group (AKA the "until it is cheap and I can talk the wife into it" group) so I am watching and waiting to see what happens in the TV arena as well. Right now without an HDTV it is really an academic discussion for me...
One aspect of BD that I think is relevant is the 5X increase in capacity. Be it HD or not, if I can get an entire season of Stargate on one disc, that is a bonus for me!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/12/technology/internet/12cyber.html
Sure as heck we would not be able to use on-demand services.
While Blue-ray looks like all that, my wallet is not. I will buy a blue-ray player when they come down to the DVD prices, I have a HDTV, AND when I can only buy movies on Blue-ray. As long as DVD is available, I will stick with what I have.
My DVD player has Component, which is good enough for me, to send a signal to HDTV.
However, just as many people are satisfied with lesser quality MP3 files for downloads vs. higher quality CDs, perhaps DVD quality downloads will remain the norm for quite some time due to their much lower bandwidth requirements.
George, a lot of classical and jazz music fans never left the vinyl LP. CDs just don't sound the same to them.